Posted on September 12, 2021
Goldman Sachs, like many others, adapted its expectations when the Brexit drama unfolded. At the end of January, it lowered the probability of a Brexit cancellation from 40% to 35%. There was also a 50% chance that Brexit would be delayed from 29 March. The current deadline is currently April 12. The extension of market quotas is in line with the forecasts of other observers. Jordan Rochester, a money strategist at Nomura, said this week that the probability of a no-deal Brexit had risen to 40%. “Although the new Brexit deal has received the green light, the prime minister still needs the support of MPs, which is reflected in the chances that Article 50 will be extended and the UK will remain in the EU beyond October 31,” said Jessica O`Reilly of Ladbrokes. In a statement to customers, the bank said it was still the most likely scenario that Parliament would finally approve a modified version of the UK`s withdrawal agreement with the European Union, Bloomberg reports (Paywall). But it reduced the likelihood of this happening from 50% to 45%. And he now sees the timing of this process longer and distorts more towards an extension of Article 50 by more than a year.
The longer the extension, “the more likely it is that there will be no Brexit at all,” noted analyst Adrian Paul. “As talks multiply, the chances of a no-deal Brexit are shorter than ever, with little chance of extending the transition period.” Smarkets attributes the possibilities of extension to the introduction of the UK government`s Single Market Act on Wednesday 9 September. The new law has been controversial as it has nullified the UK`s international contract obligations. The bill states that the UK is not required to abide by the Northern Ireland Protocol, an important element of the EU withdrawal agreement signed last year. Ladbrokes (GVC. L), Paddy Power (FLTR. L), Betfair and Smarkets all offered longer quotas for a delay than a release on October 31. This is despite the fact that Britain and the EU reached a new agreement on Thursday. Rival bookmaker Ladbrokes has proposed a 5/2 rate for Britain to leave the UK by October 31, a 28% chance, but a 2/5 extension rate, or a 71% chance. The betfair Exchange offered similar quotas. The chances of making a deal have now fallen to 49 percent, Smarkets said, from 67 percent a month ago.
Meanwhile, the bank estimated that the probability of a no-deal Brexit was only 15%. Paddy Power`s chances of Britain leaving the EU by Oct. 31 shone to 7/4 on Thursday after the new deal. But the bookmaker still offered much better rates for an extension to 2/7. . . .