Posted on April 7, 2021
The president`s promise to renegotiate the international climate agreement has always been a smokescreen, the oil industry has a red phone at the Home Office, and will Trump bring food trucks to Old Faithful? The IPCC SR1.5 also assesses other routes that lead to higher warming levels, including pathways that keep warming below 2oC with a 66% chance and do not return to 1.5oC. The IPCC SR1.5 provides an assessment of these methods for comparing and consistency with attenuation paths compatible with 1.5oC. The IPCC SR1.5 is also very clear about the increase in climate risks between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, which refers to the clause of the Paris LTTG Agreement, which recognizes that warming is well below 2 degrees Celsius and is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which greatly reduces the risks and effects of climate change. These rules of transparency and accountability are similar to those set out in other international agreements. Although the system does not include financial sanctions, the requirements are intended to easily monitor the progress of individual nations and promote a sense of overall group pressure, discouraging any towing of feet among countries that might consider it. The level of the NDC set by each country will determine the objectives of that country. However, the “contributions” themselves are not binding under international law because of the lack of specificity, normative nature or language necessary to establish binding standards.  In addition, there will be no mechanism to compel a country to set a target in its NDC on a specified date and not for an application if a defined target is not achieved in an NDC.   There will be only a “Name and Shame” system  or as UN Deputy Secretary General for Climate Change, J. Pésztor, CBS News (US), a “Name and Encouragement” plan.
 Since the agreement has no consequences if countries do not live up to their commitments, such a consensus is fragile. A cattle of nations withdrawing from the agreement could trigger the withdrawal of other governments and lead to the total collapse of the agreement.  To avoid major changes in life as we know it, global action is needed. That is why the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming, rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. In fact, the seemingly small difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees could have dramatic consequences on deep nations and coral reefs. At 2 degrees Celsius, companies and countries have recognized both the need to take action to combat climate change, and many are increasingly recording and publishing their carbon emissions under increasing regulation and recommendation. While the Paris Agreement ultimately aims to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, many studies evaluating the voluntary commitments of some countries in Paris show that the cumulative effect of these emission reductions will not be significant enough to keep temperatures below that ceiling. Indeed, the targets set by the target countries should limit the future increase in temperature between 2.7 and 3.7 degrees Celsius. At the same time, recent assessments of countries` developments in the framework of their climate targets in Paris indicate that some countries are already not meeting their commitments. The EU and its member states are among the nearly 190 parties to the Paris Agreement. The EU formally ratified the agreement on 5 October 2016, allowing it to enter into force on 4 November 2016. In order for the agreement to enter into force, at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions had to file their ratification instruments.